Manitoba Election Race Tightens
Surge Among 35-49 year-olds Vaults NDP into Statistical Tie with PCs
ALERT: It has come to my attention that there is an issue with the weighting of the survey results that we released yesterday regarding the Manitoba election. We are working diligently to address this issue. It is unclear if the weighting issue will impact the results. We will be carefully reviewing the data and aim to provide an update within 48 hrs, but will be taking the time necessary to ensure the results are accurate. We plan to re-issue the findings as soon as possible, if any discrepancies are found.
We regret any inconvenience this may have caused.
WINNIPEG – Despite leading in polls since their election in 2016, Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives have fallen into a dead heat with Wab Kinew’s NDP right at the beginning of the 2019 provincial election. The PCs’ slumping fortunes, combined with polarized views about the early election call, have now turned the Manitoba election into a surprisingly competitive contest.
Converso Research surveyed 1,127 Manitobans between July 28 and August 7 and found that the election is now an even race between the PCs and NDP among decided voters. Buoyed by a surge among 35-49 year-olds, the NDP is now in a statistical tie with 30% of decided support to 31% for the PCs. The Manitoba Liberals trail at 11%, the Green Party at 6%, and 15% of the electorate undecided.
“This poll sheds light on what’s going on beneath the surface of typical polling numbers,” said Carl Mavromichalis, Managing Director of Converso. “What stands out is an unusually high and polarized view about this election being a time to elect a new government among decided voters.
“PC supporters strongly disagreeing with that, but NDP, Liberal, and Green supporters strongly agreeing. Moreover, beneath the surface of whether or not the early election call could harm Pallister’s prospects of re-election, there is significant polarization among decided supporters: almost half of PC supporters don’t care at all about the election’s timing, but a significant number do. NDP, Liberal, and Green supporters feel very strongly about it.”
The Pallister PCs outflank the other parties in other key measures that can translate into election day turnout: the PCs significantly outperformed the other parties in living up to the expectations of its 2016 voters, which has kept a high number of them as decided PC voters this time around. Comparatively, the other parties have not measured as well as the PCs in terms of living up to the expectations of their 2016 voters, retaining their 2016 supporters, and overall ratings by their own supporters. The NDP do not appear to be resonating strongly among Liberals, which could predict the prospects of winning over strategic votes.
A sample this size generally has a 3% margin of error 19 times out of 20, and was weighted in line with Statistics Canada’s 2016 census data for the populations sampled.
Converso Research is operated by Converso Engagement Services, one of Canada’s leading public engagement firms since 2016. The Manitoba Election 2019 IVR is its inaugural public opinion research survey. The full report will be released on Monday, August 19, 2019.
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